‘Growth growth growth!’

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  • #246358
    SideriteSiderite
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    Registered On: December 12, 2014
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    I am cringing a bit at the tone there, Heath. I disagree with JI a lot on faith based issues, but I have waned from my new atheist youth. If religion gives someone comfort, so be it.

    There is an interesting point in there, though. If someone has a minority view, they should be welcome to put forward their ideas without hassle. Which means that campaigns to rejoin the Customs Union, Single Market or even the EU should be permissible, no matter the complains of the ‘will of the people’ brigade, and regardless of their merit.

    The irony of Truss saying we need growth, and attacking dissidents as opposed to it, is that growth has flatlined since 2016 and it takes some cheek to blame it on those who opposed the trigger for that.

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    #246363
    dandaherron@yahoo.co.ukJust Iron
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    Perhaps took it wrong then IA. My apologies. Saw it as a dig at Democracy which it seems wasn’t your intention.
    I think it was Churchill who saw the flaws … as I do … but then stated that it was the alternatives that were the problem.
    Clearly our Society isn’t majority Christian, Heath .. and our society reflects that increasingly. Whether it is improving as we move away from the Judaea Christian values which have undergirded the modern age in the West is a point of discussion that we’ve had before.
    A majority perspective is, in matters of truth, irrelevant. In or out of the EU / Labour or Conservative Etc .. these are not absolutes and so rightly subject to the Democratic process .. although by the tone of some contributors it sometimes feels like they see no possibility of nuance. But in terms of truth … if no one believes it doesn’t alter anything. Facts are stubborn things.

    #246365
    HeathHeath
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    “There is an interesting point in there, though. If someone has a minority view, they should be welcome to put forward their ideas without hassle”.

    The point I was mischievously making! Emphasised again by Ms Truss and her ludicrous attempt to stifle argument through her invention of the anti growth coalition.

    If she’s so sure, put it to a general election and we will see where the majority view is.

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    #246366
    HeathHeath
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    “Many on the left want to defund the police” according to the more poisonous than Patel, Ms Braverman.

    She must have missed the last 12 years when the Tories made savage cuts to police numbers.

    #246369
    SideriteSiderite
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    “There is an interesting point in there, though. If someone has a minority view, they should be welcome to put forward their ideas without hassle”.

    The point I was mischievously making! Emphasised again by Ms Truss and her ludicrous attempt to stifle argument through her invention of the anti growth coalition.

    If she’s so sure, put it to a general election and we will see where the majority view is.

    I did nearly put the thought down that this may have well been your point you were getting at.

    #246373
    GurnelistaGurnelista
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    Aye, excellent point, Heathy. What do you think, JI??

    As for BI’s comment on parties not being interested in growth for the past 20 years, it was never more starkly demonstrated than when the racists, cheats, liars and Dominic Cummings came in and effectively torched growth by withdrawing from the EU, in what was the biggest act of economic sef-harm in the history of the country, one enthusiastically supported by, erm… BI.

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    #246377
    BucksironBucksiron
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    First, I’m an atheist but fully respect people’s faith, whatever that might be.

    Second, have you actually seen what’s happening in the EU, Gurny? Probably not because the entire enterprise could cave in and you’d still support it. All you’re doing, as usual, is blaming everything on Brexit. Well, obviously Brexit will have made an impact and I’ve no doubt whatever that might have been negative from an economic perspective. In reality, even it that is the case it will be a few years before the real impact will be known.

    However, I chose to leave because I wasn’t happy with the way the EU wanted to put more power into the hands of unelected bureaucrats. Economics didn’t come into it, though I never believed project fear despite being told the world would end. I fully understand that you and others can never accept the democratic right of those who disagree with you. After all, you know what’s best for everyone.

    #246378
    SideriteSiderite
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    Ah, yes, of course, the flatlining of investment and growth after 2016 has nothing to do with Brexit.

    I accept others think differently, but I am not going to silence my own views if others can’t accept different opinions.

    #246387
    HeathHeath
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    “However, I chose to leave because”..

    I was wrong again!

    #246389
    Deereyme66Deereyme66
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    ‘However, I chose to leave because I wasn’t happy with the way the EU wanted to put more power into the hands of unelected bureaucrats.’

    Ah yes, and just to point out, in the interests of fairness and balance, there were also many on the left that also voted to Leave based on that premise. I’ve been shouted down by friends and colleagues for criticising them for that, insinuating that really i thought they were racists. Nice eh? Some even have the audacity to forget they voted Leave in the first place! It was a dirty divisive battle.

    #246408
    BucksironBucksiron
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    You clearly haven’t read my comment, Siderite. It says: “…obviously Brexit will have made an impact and I’ve no doubt whatever that might have been negative from an economic perspective”.

    Obviously I can’t comment on what your ‘friends and colleagues’ criticised you for, Deerey, but on this board there were plenty of comments claiming that those voting for Brexit were anti-immigration and racist. Even if people did vote because of immigration that did not and does not make them racist.

    I have no problem at all with immigration and believe it to be a good thing. The downside is that this inevitably puts a lot more pressure on public services, including the NHS, and that is a problem.

    #246409
    SideriteSiderite
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    I did skim read, admittedly, and focused on the last part. Well, I will take any insinuation that anyone against Truss’s plan has to be against growth with a huge pinch of salt, since many of those attacking those against Truss’s plan couldn’t care less before.

    Of course things might change, economically, but the decision to leave doesn’t look like it will improve things. Any deals with the EU will be worse than before, we don’t have the leverage to get a better deal, and no other country will fill that same void. Of course I could be wrong, but this is my legitimate opinion.

    #246417
    NorthumbironNorthumbiron
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    “However, I chose to leave because I wasn’t happy with the way the EU wanted to put more power into the hands of unelected bureaucrats. Economics didn’t come into it”

    Bloody Hell! It should have done.

    It’s knackered more small businesses than Covid and Putin put together.

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    #246454
    HeathHeath
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    You’re right NI.

    I can’t find a German car anywhere.

    #246553
    BucksironBucksiron
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    I completely disagree, NI. The irony is that if the EU was about economic strength, which at one time it was, then it’s unlikely the vote would have been to leave. The problems really began after Maastricht and, more recently, Lisbon.

    Had the EU taken more notice of Cameron — and had Cameron been firmer with the EU, then, again, it’s unlikely the vote would have been to leave.

    You only have to look at what’s now happening in EU countries to understand how disunited it’s become.

    #246558
    Iron-aweIron-awe
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    Whilst our own beloved nation is totally united and behind our new PM eh Bucks?

    #246577
    GurnelistaGurnelista
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    I have no problem at all with immigration and believe it to be a good thing. The downside is that this inevitably puts a lot more pressure on public services, including the NHS, and that is a problem.

    This was one of the biggest lies put about during the Brexit campaign.

    In fact immigrants tend to be young, single, and compared to Brits, they don’t access public services very much, yet pay tax which contributes to the those services needed most by the elderly and low-paid of this country, particularly social and health care, as many on this board know too well.

    You really need to support what you say with some facts BI, instead of spreading around rumours and lies in the manner of a demented Daily Mail.

    https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/blogs/immigration-and-the-nhs-the-evidence

    The problems really began after Maastricht and, more recently, Lisbon.

    No, the problems began when Cameron and Clegg conspicuously failed to deal with an economic crisis. So, they needed an excuse, a distraction, and nicked UKIP’s USP’s, blaming immigrants, blaming “unelected bureaucrats”, and offering a referendum on EU membership.

    Most papers/broadcasters went along with it, conveniently forgetting about all the unelected rulers and direct drains on the public purse of this country – the monarchy, aristocracy and lords to name but a few, not to mention the democratic deficiency of the first-past-the-post voting system.

    And thanks to an orchestrated campaign across social media with fake identities, bots, trolls etc. the campaign worked. For a brief moment the country lost its collective senses and went mad, dividing families, friends and neighbours, and voting to impose economic sanctions on itself in the name of blue passports and foreigners.

    Now, most have woken up (pun intended) and realised the extent to which their pockets have been picked, while Downing St. boasts of opening up chicken markets in Mongolia or similar, and BI still tries to sell the dated view that everything’s fine and dandy.

    All so tired, so out of time, so out of place. And sad.

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    #246580
    NorthumbironNorthumbiron
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    I completely disagree, NI. The irony is that if the EU was about economic strength, which at one time it was.

    But I personally know three business owners who say Brexit has been a disaster for them.

    My son works in the hospitality industry and my daughter for a fashion house and they say likewise.

    Staffing, supply chains, import and export duties, new certification…..etc etc.

    I also know a couple of people who work in Europe, one of whom was over here last week so I was able to talk to him.

    Speaking with a guy who runs a Spanish Deli the other day. Asked why an item that used to be £5.95 was now £8.95. You’ll never guess what he told me!

    I’m getting this from real people, not the gutter press.

    And no one could tell me of any benefits that had come about as a result of Brexit either. So if anyone knows of some, please share.

    #246581
    GurnelistaGurnelista
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    Stop talking about that glorious victory, stop it now, stop talking the country down, NI!! Haha..

    #246582
    GurnelistaGurnelista
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    Tories and growth?

    Vote Tory, get a recession – 1980-81, 1990-91, a recession in 2009 but austerity lasting well over a decade due to economic mismanagement, followed by another low in 2020, and now here we are on the brink of yet another recession, as the UK economy is reported the only one in the G7 NOT to have returned to pre-pandemic levels.

    Meanwhile, the NHS is suffering more than most (due in part to short staffing and the exit of migrant labour) as is social care (same reasons), as anyone knows who needs attention for themselves or family members. It’s enough to drive you mad.

    Fact is, the Tories are bad for your health – financial, physical and mental.

    “Shush, stop talking the country down! We won’t be able to tell about Brexit for another 30 years!”

    #246585
    Deereyme66Deereyme66
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    Brief article about current recruitmemt problems in the UK, similar analysis to a R4 programme I heard the other day (can’t find it on BBC but it was presented by Nick Robinson so hardly lefty!). Many industry experts saying Brexit is a problem but one of numerous factors. The current immigration rules seem to be a bigger issue regarding recruitmemt (from what was identified in the programme anyway). Who oversaw these rules? ‘Quick – look for someone else to blame! I know – civil servants – hurrah!!’

    https://www.peoplemanagement.co.uk/article/1795782/brexit-exacerbated-uk-labour-shortages-causes-more-complex-research-says

    #246607
    BucksironBucksiron
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    You’re the one who needs to check their facts, Gurny. The percentage of children and youth migrants is significantly lower than UK-born while the percentage of migrants between 26 and 64 is much higher than UK-born and around 12% of migrants are 65 and over compared to 20% of the UK population. These are big numbers of people in the older age groups who are far less likely to be paying the same proportion of taxes. I don’t personally have a problem with this but saying they’re not having a big impact on public services is quite simply untrue.

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migrants-in-the-uk-an-overview/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20people%20born%20outside,or%20people%20of%20retirement%20age.

    As for recession, again that isn’t true. In addition, we’ve just heard that initial figures suggest August saw a drop of 0.3% in GDP, which is precisely why the Government’s taken the action it has while the IMF is now saying the UK will have the fastest growth of G7 countries this year. It’s also the case that while the UK’s inflation rate is very high, this was brought down enormously by the mini-budget while support for the pension funds by the BoE has only been necessary because of the crazy risks they’ve been taking to cover final-salary pensions.

    The markets and everyone has become used to cheap and easy money but that has to stop. The Bank should have increased interest rates earlier and the fact the Fed did so much faster and higher is one reason the pound has suffered, although this is true for all the major currencies, including the euro. None of this means the Government hasn’t made a lot of mistakes, which it clearly has, but again that doesn’t mean the economy is anything like as bad as being claimed by the predictable suspects.

    As for recruitment, this is a big problem. The irony here is that it’s largely down to people not working and the reasons for this are very much open to debate. Some claim it’s down to illness while others claim it’s down to personal choice following the pandemic and the reality is probably somewhere in the middle. Of course Brexit will have had an impact on this but as Deerey’s article says, so will many other factors.

    #246609
    SideriteSiderite
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    Interesting how forecasts are definitely correct when it suits some, but dismissible when it’s the other way round.

    I am rather sceptical that the mini-budget has anything to do with any current growth outcome. The IMF are predicting less growth in 2023, lower than many of those in this same figure. However, I am sure this can be just dismissed, because reasons, as it always is when it doesn’t suit the agenda.

    #246612
    BucksironBucksiron
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    Not true, Siderite. I never believe forecasts and just because I’ve quoted it doesn’t mean I think it’s correct. In fact I doubt it very much. It’s the markets and the media that demand these things, not me. I’ve simply quoted it to demonstrate that EVEN the IMF does not believe the Government has ‘crashed the economy’.

    As for 2023, I tend to agree with you although the question remains what would have happened without the current strategy? I personally believe growth will be stronger as energy costs are likely to come down given more natural gas will be available. It’s even possible that the Government won’t actually need to support people as much as expected, which will make a huge difference to borrowing and related costs.

    #246613
    SideriteSiderite
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    In fact, the IMF have warned of a sharp reduction in growth today, so the idea they back this plan is fanciful to say the least.

    The idea that the mini-budget has nothing to do with that, when the gilts rose (and have risen again) catastrophically, causing the BoE to intervene 3 times, only after that is a bit much.

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    #246614
    SideriteSiderite
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    Not true, Siderite. I never believe forecasts and just because I’ve quoted it doesn’t mean I think it’s correct.

    That was not made clear really, and it was made to look like an endorsement, while ignoring the IMF saying they think growth will reduce because of the plan.

    The problem with trying to dismiss these forecasts, is that you’re putting forward predictions yourself, and I am highly sceptical of them, given everything, so I am critical of the government’s actions. Whether that makes me a ‘predictable suspect’ for not blindly following Tory rhetoric, I don’t know, but I will continue to think for myself (while being open to being wrong).

    #246635
    GurnelistaGurnelista
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    The downside is that this (immigration) inevitably puts a lot more pressure on public services, including the NHS, and that is a problem.

    You wilfully miss the point.

    Once again, you repeat the myth about migration putting pressure on public services, particularly the NHS.

    It’s a frequently used argument which tries to conceal racism under the cloak of a legitimate concern, while suggesting there’s something inherently ‘bad’ about making provision for the public; that somehow decent public services are an abberation that shouldn’t happen.

    It’s also false argument about elderly migrants, because most migrants tend to be young, single, healthy and wanting to work and pay tax. The stats are in my OP.

    You rightly point out that around 20 per cent of the UK population is over 65, (that’s 20 per cent of 67 million) and around 12 per cent of migrants are 65 or over. But, that’s 12 per cent of the 9.5 million who were not born in the UK, not 12 per cent of 67 million!

    And, the reality is that almost all the 12% of 65+ non-Brits, are citizens who have lived and worked here most of their lives, starting families and paying taxes just like anyone else.

    Alas, in true Mail style, you try to create a fearful impression of elderly men and women ‘illegals’, scrambling up the beaches, straight to the front of the queue in the nearest hospital.

    It’s an ancient trope guaranteed to anger the elderly, who really depend on our broken-down, under-funded public services.

    Indeed, wasn’t it Teresa May and her climate of hostility who very publically went round Brixton and elsewhere in a bid to round up elderly, long-retired Windrush migrants and send them back after decades of living and working here, simply because they had never applied for a British passport? It must have looked terrific to the racists in the party, a real piece of populist politics aimed at drawing Kippers back into the blue fold! The nasty party indeed.

    As for the “big impact” you claim elderly immigrants have had on public services, they certainly have. They’ve been propping up the public services since the 1950s, driving buses, cleaning trains, streets, hospitals, doing a lot of jobs Brits thought were beneath them…. And that’s while putting up with years of racism, abuse, arrogance and passive hostility from the populist press and people like yourself, probably while looking after your elderly mother, and now or in future, yourself. You should be ashamed.

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    #246642
    BucksironBucksiron
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    I’m not missing anything, Gurny, wilfully or otherwise. What you’re doing is using the stats to hide the real numbers, which is a classic trick. 12% of 9.5 million is 1.14 million, which is a very big number of old people.

    As for your comment that “most migrants tend to be young, single, healthy and wanting to work and pay tax”, the stats I used from Oxford University clearly show that the percentage of migrants in the 26 to 64 age group is half as big again as those who are UK born, while those who are children or youths are much lower. Of course the percentages apply to a smaller population — of migrants — but, again, this still means a lot of people. As for paying tax, migrants have historically held lower paid jobs and will therefore have paid a lower proportion of tax. However, I suspect this is changing, which in my opinion is a good thing as more will now be getting higher paid work.

    You then come out with your usual nonsensical references to the ‘Daily Mail’, racism and anything else you can throw in to paint this absurd stereotypical Conservative. I’ve already pointed out that I have absolutely no problem with immigration, in fact I’m all for it. But claiming immigration hasn’t put additional pressure on public services is just denying the facts.

    As for Windrush, I wasn’t at all happy with what happened, in fact I was appalled. But, hey, don’t let the truth get in the way. In the meantime, I don’t recall you EVER saying you were or are appalled by the anti-Semitism in the Labour party. Maybe Jews aren’t worthy enough for you to care too much about them?

    Your final comment is just one great big, fat lie, but then you just can’t help yourself, can you. I’ve never been racist in my entire life and never will be. I have nothing to be remotely ashamed about. Have you?

    #246664
    HeathHeath
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    “I have nothing to be remotely ashamed about”.

    Backing Liz Truss isn’t looking too clever is it. Another stain on your judgement.

    #246671
    NorthumbironNorthumbiron
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    Looks like The King may have seen through her too!

    https://apple.news/AVTp2hYUNT-uH6DK6pvB6cA

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