April 17, 2020 at 9:57 am #175477
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An elderly population base and multigenerational families in one house, like Italy and Spain, but they locked down far earlier with schools shutting and public events closing down upon the detection of the first one hundred cases. Italy and Spain have had thousands of deaths from coronavirus, while Greece have had 2207 cases and only 105 deaths. There seems to be a pattern in which countries which locked down straight away are coming out of this better when compared to nations with similar demographics and will be able to get back to normal faster, as it stands, with potentially less damage to the economy as a result.
This seems contrary to what those who argue that we shouldn’t lock down for the economy’s sake. They point to Sweden as a counterargument, but it is not a great comparison with the UK in terms of population density, meaning that the chance of spreading the disease is different. When you compare Sweden to its neighbours (Denmark, Finland and Norway), countries with similar population densities and cultures, Sweden is faring the worst.
The caveat here is of course that there could well be a second wave coming and countries which have prevented disease spread, rather than build immunity, may be hit worse here, but for now it looks like they are on the best track.
I tried to defend the UK’s stance on this at the time, as it was what the advisers were suggesting, and I think they meant well. Like I say, this isn’t over yet, and true conclusions over what was the best course of action won’t be able to be made until a vaccine can be distributed. However, I can’t help but notice that countries which were far more diligent in locking down have fared better so far.
We could end up doing well out of this if a second wave isn’t as severe, we don’t know, but this is more of an urge of caution for those who seem eager to dismiss locking down as being inherently unworkable and that Sweden should be emulated, as suggested by bpg and Awaywego elsewhere.
1 user thanked author for this post.April 17, 2020 at 11:14 am #175488
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My missus reckons there has been a better response from countries with female heads of state: –April 17, 2020 at 3:20 pm #175507
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Ireland are doing much better following their earlier interventions, even bearing in mind population and demographics differences.
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