Home Forums Non Football At Last Some Common Sense: Well Done ‘The Guardian’

  • #175307

    Bucksiron
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    Coronavirus has exposed the problems with computer models, which are only ever as good as the data used in them and the inevitable assumptions made when developing them:

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling

    Applying this to climate ‘science’ or economics — where the uncertainties and assumptions remain very great, regardless of what some might claim — and the problem of taking the results they produce as “gospel” is exposed for what it is.

    Just to be absolutely clear, computer models are very useful — we use them all the time — but the idea they can predict what’s going to happen with anything remotely close to reality is just bunkum. The inevitable question is why any climate or economics academic would claim otherwise, for which the answer has far more to do with politics and getting funding than proper science. The truth is they’ve been able to get away with it because not enough people can look at the data for themselves and see what’s really going on. Coronavirus is very different, of course, because anyone can see the numbers for what they are.

    Well done to ‘The Guardian’ for running this piece. I just hope they now start to do what any decent medium should do, which is to challenge the scientists and politicians who use results from complex computer models without warning about how inaccurate they’re always bound to be; and that inaccuracy is the only thing we can be 100% certain about.

    #175309

    BloodyRubbishIron
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    I am old enough to remember you using the arguments of the flawed Oxford study as a means to reduce panic.

    Of course models have limitations, however in the science you try to rubbish the evidence for such is not reliant on computer modelling, as repeatedly discussed on here. Like you say, all you have to do is look at the data, and anyone other than those with a certain agenda can see that the data we have corresponds to that of climate change as induced by anthropogenic means.

    #175311

    Big J
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    Well said Bucksiron!

    The utter farce of modern economics and climate change has led the sheep to not question what the liberal elitist stooges tell them. They told them Brexit would wreck the economy, it hasn’t, and they are now silent. Such deluded morons tried to destroy this country by shackling us to the German, NWO state that is the EU as a result.

    You are right in questioning where these ‘scientists’ and ‘economists’ are funded. They are funded by George Soros, Bill Gates and other key figures of the NWO, who want to run a globalist and communist one world government in which we are all but slaves. Just see why Bill Gates sponsors the vaccination programs. Models showing vaccination success are an utter farce, as demonstrated by the flaws of models you describe and as detailed in the Guardian. The commie stooges of the NWO want to pull wool over everyone’s eyes so that their braindead ‘science’ hoodwinks the gullible sheep.

    Scientists don’t care as they take a wad of cash to maintain their lifestyles and many are communists anyway. They would love to see the communist NWO vanguard hijack the world and implement communism. It’s their twisted ideology. It’s why they don’t care about the poor who will be affected by the increased energy prices, which is the biggest worry. Their comfy middle class lifestyles are not impacted, so they do not care, so long as they get their ideological wish.

    It also plays into the population reduction schemes that the NWO want to implement. If the poor die due to a lack of heating they see it as a good thing. This is genocide, as planned by the NWO, to rid the world of the useless eaters.

    Climate change is a con and is used to drive home the NWO’s plans, as is the scaremongering over coronavirus. They have been screaming about hundreds of thousands dying from coronavirus. This isn’t happening, but the moronic sheep who believe the NWO think it’s necessary. Wake up! This lockdown is vital to implement the one world government. Climate change is vital to stop the masses from rising against their elitist masters. It’s time we ditch the bullshit put forward by ‘scientists’ and their models before we are nothing but slaves for the Zionists.

    #175313

    BloodyRubbishIron
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    Please stop. My sides have only just recovered after recovering from splitting after engaging with the last crank we had on here.

    #175314

    Gurnelista
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    Hysteria from the creationist! Strange company BI attracts.

    Completely agree with BRI. The lack of preparedness over Corona shows the importance of applying the precautionary principle, i.e. if the consequences of erroneous interpretations of the evidence can be so catastrophic, then you have to protect and proceed with utmost caution, just in case you’re wrong.

    Indeed, the article mentions this in the penultimate paragraph and above.

    Due to the reckless disregard for the findings of the Cygnus drill in 2016, and the subsequent cascade of warnings, we now see the disastrous consequences.

    Meanwhile, the government has blamed NHS staff for equipment shortages, blamed the public for not understanding their vague and conflicting advice, and they cry foul when the opposition (such as it is) quotes their own statements back at them. They might we well blame it on the boogie.

    They’re utterly despicable and I wouldn’t put it past them, no matter how many people die, to pass it off as some kind of victory.

    #175316

    Northumbiron
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    These will be the scientists that were relying on to develop a vaccine against the virus then?

    #175317

    TwoWrights
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    Read the first few lines of the OP, then torpor set in and I’ve rapidly scrolled to the bottom of the thread. Hey ho, there’s nothing like an open mind, but mine was closed years ago with the same tripe regurgitated. None intended. 😜

    It’s our time.

    #175328

    Bucksiron
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    BRI, what I find so strange is why you continue to come out with the same comment again and again and again — I’m not arguing with the science and never have, so why do you keep claiming that I am?

    The point you continue to miss is that nobody is arguing with “the science” but with the predictions taken from the models, which are treated as “fact” by scientists who really should know better. The coronavirus modelling is revealing for everyone to see this very point. If you can’t see it then I suggest you look a bit more closely.

    As for the ‘flawed Oxford study’ I stand by everything I said. The reason decisions have been taken is to reduce the impact on the health service, which otherwise wouldn’t be able to cope with the sudden demand, which makes complete sense. None of this alters the fact that the number of deaths from coronavirus will be relatively small compared to other diseases. Indeed, we’re soon going to hit a tipping point where more people will die from a lack of treatment of other diseases, such as cancer, because of the lockdown than will die from coronavirus itself. We might even have hit it already. Whether you like it or not we’re going to have to live with this virus for some time to come and the “herd” approach will simply have to be adopted.

    As for “the crank”, I assume this is the person whose point on climate change you failed miserably to address. Yes, she’s eccentric but a brilliant one nonetheless. Many of the most brilliant minds have very strange ideas about the world.

    Regarding your comment, Gurnelista, don’t you realise just how easy it is to see right through you? I’m very happy to accept the Government makes wrong decisions because like everything else in the real world it’s far from perfect.

    If only everyone were as perfect and all-knowing as you, Gurnelista…

    #175329

    BloodyRubbishIron
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    You’ve continuously argued with the science, Bucks, regardless of your protestations. It has been clear to see on here whenever we have discussed it previously. If you weren’t arguing with the science you wouldn’t make comments about how climate hasn’t warmed up as they said it had. You wouldn’t continuously talk about polar vortices being some kind of evidence against climate change, you would understand why we can still have snowfall during climate change and you wouldn’t talk about nature changing and always will in rebuttal to any kind of talk over variables. The fact that you think this is a killer argument displays your own lack of knowledge. You like to trumpet how knowledgeable you are compared to everyone else, and continuously refuse to even think of engaging in where you’re wrong (the Dunning-Kruger effect in action), but by all means continue to put others down, but you cannot explain yourself further than Godidit style answers.

    I discussed the flaws with her approach, the fact that you have such a miserable understanding of the science is not my problem. But if you want to fix your mast to someone who denies sedimentation, doesn’t understand the relevance of localised temperature versus absolute, then by all means do. It only shows what kind of source you value and you make my case all the easier. As for not answering questions, 4 years I’ve been talking about this with you and I am still yet to find a satisfactory answer to how non-anthropogenic means can cause climate change when all the known variables show it don’t and all I get is the banal climate changes and always will non-answer.

    #175330

    Deereyme66
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    All Phin did was reel off a load of data sets and when put to task was left found extremely wanting. She / he kept reeling off more and more data with nonsensical rationale and illogical arguments but like all great cranks appeared to take great delight in doing it. Why? Because they like to be the centre of attention. Plus, I don’t recall you even remotely trying to explain or summarise his / her arguments. Why? Because they made as much sense to you as anyone else. Nada.

    #175333

    Bucksiron
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    No BRI, I’ve never argued with the science. My argument was, has always been and always will be that there is absolutely no hard evidence whatever that the world is facing the catastrophe being claimed by so-called climate ‘scientists’.

    You don’t have to be an ‘expert’ to understand this. You can complain as much as you like but the 100% plain truth remains that all of the arguments being put forward rely entirely on computer models; and I can tell you with 100% certainty that the computer models are wrong. Useful, but always wrong; and if a model is ever “right” then that is just down to plain, simple luck.

    There’s nothing remotely clever about saying this. It doesn’t need a PhD in anything. Any statistician will tell you exactly the same and if they don’t then I can assure you they’re lying. You currently have two of the world’s greatest academic institutions — Oxford University and Imperial College — with diametrically opposite views over the coronavirus. What I can tell you is that whatever happens they’ll both be wrong. It’s just the reality of the complex world in which we live.

    As for Zoe, I couldn’t care less what happened in her argument with you. I’m not going to pretend to understand anything about geology or whatever your subject happens to be. You might have been completely right and she might have been completely wrong, I don’t know. She’s the sort of person who will argue anything. What I do know is that you failed miserably to address her argument over the climate science stats.

    Deerey, you don’t have a clue what she was talking about in her argument about the climate science, any more than BRI did. When it comes to bamboozling, BRI’s every bit as bad as she was! Yet somehow it’s OK for BRI to talk nonsense.

    Anyway, the facts will always win in the end. What the facts are pointing to right now is that computer models have a lot of uses but accurately predicting the future for non-deterministic systems, which include economics, climate and, yes, pandemics, isn’t one of them. That doesn’t mean they’re useless — far from it, but it does mean that anyone claiming they know what’s going to happen to the ridiculous levels claimed by climate ‘scientists’ is taking people for one big ride; and all the dollars they can get their hands on. Politicians, academics, just follow the money.

    #175337

    BloodyRubbishIron
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    You’ve never argued with the science? Yet you have demonstrably called the science into question, including the examples I listed. If you didn’t question the science you would not be saying that climate change hasn’t occurred as much as the scientists say it’s had or that CO2 is the causer. Don’t like it? Then tough, I am not going to be politically correct and skirt around the obvious to make you feel better.

    “You might have been completely right and she might have been completely wrong, I don’t know”

    The fact that you say this and cannot see how her arguments were complete insanity is telling. Knowing how rocks form is hardly some controversial science. Arguing against it is as insane as saying the Earth is flat, which makes her a crank. Or do you seriously think that fossils cannot form in sedimentary rocks or that erosion cannot happen are plausible points?

    There’s nothing bamboozling in me stating that she misapplied a localised temperature anomaly for globalised temperature with a parameter reliant on many assumptions. The fact that you don’t understand why this is not my problem, and only damages your case further. What’s more, I’ve since researched her claims about total preciptable water. The data she uses covers humidity from 1948 onwards. She uses this for the 19th century, which is a massive overreach. This isn’t science, this is a fool with a higher opinion of herself than warranted manipulating data to suit an agenda, fooling someone else with a high opinion of themselves. You can boast all you want and act like an expert, but it impresses no-one other than your own ego if all you can do in defence is make empty statements about how everyone else pales to your understanding in this.

    #175339

    THE-99%
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    backtracking, then backtracking, then full circle

    #175346

    Deereyme66
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    ‘Deerey, you don’t have a clue what she was talking about in her argument about the climate science, any more than BRI did. When it comes to bamboozling, BRI’s every bit as bad as she was! Yet somehow it’s OK for BRI to talk nonsense.’

    You’re right I didn’t have a clue what he / she (let’s not assume this person is really a female called Zoe Phin – cranks are renowned for disguising themselves) was talking about. I don’t think it was designed to be easily understood; it was designed to blind the gullible with pseudo science. You’re wrong about BRI being just as bad though. Are you telling me you were bamboozled by his sedimentation and erosion arguments? The stuff we learned at school? Or are you with Phin when he / she suggests everything we learned at school was wrong; all university academics are lying / wrong? Do you understand this implies a global conspiracy? By deduction this is where the path ends up.

    #175348

    Northumbiron
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    I’m still struggling to understand what climate change models have to do with the coronavirus pandemic?

    #175350

    Big J
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    Bucks is right. Academics and politicians are corrupted by the NWO, and will accept any money to push their agenda. The so called science of climate change is a money making racket, akin to the Mafia, and any dissenter is quickly silenced before they cause damage to the brand. The Zionists and the NWO will not stop until a one world communist government occurs.

    This is what is happening now and why it is relevant to coronavirus, NI. This orchestrated shutdown is designed to bring a chokehold on the free citizens of the world and transform it into the communist one world government. Climate change is part of that too, which is why governments spend trillions funding such bullshit. They hoodwink the sheep with their bogus models promising doom to control us all.

    In reality we need to get back to work to prevent the economic crash, but the sheep will only attack those who dare to use their common sense, through their allegiance to the NWO.

    #175355

    Fifty Pence
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    Believing in some turquoise shellsuit wearing, Jew-hating conspiracy theory is not “daring to use common sense”. Bucks certainly has the crackpots on his side

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    #175360

    Northumbiron
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    Did someone say New Order?

    #175363

    Deereyme66
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    Might be of interest if you’ve not seen it -free for a week from Friday. I have seen it and recommend:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nme.com/news/music/new-order-to-stream-so-it-goes-live-show-with-liam-gillick-for-first-time-this-friday-2646261%3famp

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    #175368

    Heath
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    “This orchestrated shutdown is designed to bring a chokehold on the free citizens of the world and transform it into the communist one world government”.

    Crackdowns/Chokeholds/power grabs are happening across the world, but mainly by extreme right wing corrupt leaders. They are making Trump very jealous as he clearly wants to have the same powers in the US. To quote his words “never gonna happen”.

    #175369

    Big J
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    Trump? He’s the only one right now speaking sense! He’s the only one fighting against the NWO’s attempts to seize control and open businesses so people don’t die of poverty, as the communist elite desires! He also sees through the climate change con, so it’s little wonder that a loony leftard like you doesn’t like him.

    #175370

    Deereyme66
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    There is no NWO. It’s in your head. Anything else you say is subterfuge. You don’t even seem able to define what it is. At various points you describe it as German, Communist and the EU. Anybody who tries to reason with you, you call a ‘leftard’, like a sixth former struggling with existence. There is only one type of person Trump makes sense to: a simpleton.

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    #175371

    Big J
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    The NWO is the ruling elite looking to establish a one world government. These ruling elite come from nations across the world and are seeking to destroy sovereignty of each nation and its people in favour of communism. Most rulers, like Merkel, Macron, Trudeau and Varadkar are part of it. They are all out to undermine their own nations to bring this one world government together. In others there are people like Trump who are trying to stop it, but the deep state NWO is so entrenched that they have sought to sabotage his efforts. Trump isn’t NWO, but he is working against a swamp that totally is.

    The EU is one such group which is part of the NWO plans to destroy sovereignty and bring about a one world government. With the German faction of the NWO being the strongest, and the country having a strong history in leftist horror (the Nazis), it is unsurprising that it is the Germans who are the controllers of the NWO interests in Europe.

    #175372

    TwoWrights
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    Big J is increasingly sounding like the surplus store owner in the Michael Douglas film Falling Down. 💩

    It’s our time.

    #175373

    Deereyme66
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    Fantasist.

    #175375

    Fifty Pence
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    He calls others sheep, and then blindly follows the nonsense in conspiracy theory websites. Just because the word “sozialistische” is in “Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei” doesn’t make it a “leftist” party – their policies were fascist and nationalist, making them more “rightist”. But I’m probably just being a sheep, judging them on their actions rather than daring to use my common sense to just blindly repeat the same old lies.

    #175376

    Northumbiron
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    It’s a parody account!

    Stop feeding it!

    #175380

    Iron-awe
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    Fantasist.

    Pissartist? Anymore?

    #175384

    BloodyRubbishIron
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    I did wonder if the lockdown would send some people doolally. It seems to have done so with Big J.

    #175397

    Heath
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    “I’m very happy to accept the Government makes wrong decisions because like everything else in the real world it’s far from perfect”.

    Do you mean the real world where more people are dying because of their delayed and poor decision making including NHS staff and carers – will they be given a posthumous badge from Blue Peter Hancock? What a complete tosspot!

    Long long way from perfect.

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