Home Forums The New Blast Furnace After the lockdown?

  • #177263

    Iron-awe
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    Show or shoe NI? Either way Buck’s has once again blundered in with his size 10’s and kicked himself in the nuts. Hope he’s not a ginger or else McVitie’s may sue him for copyright breach.

    #177425

    Pat O’Cake
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    “Oh Lord, just how ignorant can people be”.

    Sounds like an attack to me!!

    This is one of my major issues with Bucks, along side being VERY economical with the truth he also likes to dish out personal attacks but spits his dummy when it comes in his direction.

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    #177438

    Deereyme66
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    ‘Young kids now terrified even though the chances of them dying from coronavirus are about 1 in 5 million.’

    Has it occured to you Bucks that young kids might not be so much terrified of catching it and dying but worried about catching it and passing it on to their older parents and carers who they fear could end up on a ventilator dying a horrible death, unable to be surrounded by them and other loved ones? I know mine are and plenty of other friends children. You are, as usual, selective with the truth, and it’s not helpful.

    #177442

    Iron-awe
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    Interesting how government ministers are refusing calls to go on the Good Morning show on ITV, seems they are as frightened of facing Piers Morgan as the Kipper was of facing Andrew Neil pre election. Not a huge fan of Morgan but he puts ministers under pressure by not playing their sound bite game and getting them to front up to genuine questions people want answering. The care home death figures are now becoming grossly offensive due to the strategy of this incompetent bunch running the country, how do they face the cameras every day with these appalling figures hanging round their necks and not feel ashamed I just don’t know.

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    #177467

    Awaywego
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    why would they feel ashamed some of them have had the disease so have some understanding of it. Dominic Rabb has had covid and has a parent in a care home, do you really think hes trying to kill them off?

    #177476

    MK Iron
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    Not prepared to question Mr Rabb’s parentage but not sure he has had Covid.

    On a separate note always reminds me of Rik Mayall without the jokes.

    #177480

    Northumbiron
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    He means Dominic Cummings!

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    #177487

    Iron-awe
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    why would they feel ashamed some of them have had the disease so have some understanding of it. Dominic Rabb has had covid and has a parent in a care home, do you really think hes trying to kill them off?

    They should feel ashamed because of their policy to clear out NHS beds of elderly people who were ill and some were showing signs of corona virus symptoms and putting them into care homes without even giving them a test to find out if they did have covid. The more I hear about treatment of old people and the care home system under this government the more I believe there is an agenda laid down about how to coral the elderly with this illness and let them die and let it spread in these confined areas. I’m sure the savings on all those pensions will have crossed their minds more then once, that’s why they should feel ashamed. Disgraceful.

    #177551

    Bucksiron
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    Yet more nonsense.

    “Those flu deaths were spread over a year. Coronavirus deaths have exceeded 28000 in the UK in a matter of months, where far more precautions have been undertaken. It’s suffice to say that coronavirus is deadlier than flu.”

    No it isn’t. The problem with coronavirus is that it’s completely new, which means we know very little about it. It also starts to infect people before symptoms are obvious, which means it has a much greater opportunity to spread than, say, SARS, which was more dangerous but also much easier to spot and therefore control. Flu’s killed millions over the years and will continue to do so.

    As for young kids passing the virus on to others, of course there’s a risk of that happening but, first, that isn’t the reason why so many kids are terrified even if some are; and, second, kids have always been able to pass diseases to others. As I’ve pointed out there are numerous contagious diseases and children will definitely have played a role in spreading these, including to elderly grandparents and other loved ones who will subsequently have died.

    As for the numbers, I can tell you with absolute certainty that many are dying and will die as a result of covid-19 even though they’ll never have it. You may well know people whose cancer treatment’s continued, NI, but I know people whose serious cancer treatment’s been put on hold while screening’s also been stopped.

    As for what’s happened in care homes the elderly were moved back to them because of the scaremongering about the NHS being overwhelmed. In fact the NHS has coped while “saving” it has actually killed more people directly and indirectly as a result of this. Let’s be clear, the doctors, nurses and front line staff are amazing but as a health organisation the NHS is not.

    Health organisations are meant to save lives but protecting the NHS has actually killed thousands. Meanwhile all those “new” hospitals have been built and now lie empty, with hardly a bed being used in any of them.

    #177552

    Iron-awe
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    Yet more nonsense from the PR guru, whose job is to dress up nonsense and rubbish and brand it as the facts and the truth. Mind you I commend him for being consistent in his job delivery even if it is a somewhat tarnished profession.

    #177554

    BloodyRubbishIron
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    The point was, Bucks, which you have missed, is that far more have died from coronavirus than flu has in a comparative scale in current times. I realise that it is a poorly understood novel virus and in time the death rate may reduce, but we’re not at that stage, are we? Therefore, to use flu deaths as a means to suggest that the current situation is like what we have currently with influenza is wrong. If you acknowledge that flu deaths are reduced because it’s not novel and symptoms are known then don’t bring it up as an analogy by talking about flu deaths over a year when coronavirus deaths are going to be higher right now. You specifically brought up flu deaths as a comparison to coronavirus deaths over a year (you specifically brought up 28000 dead in 2015 from flu, but we’ve surpassed it in a few months, therefore it’s a greater risk at present), the point is that as it stands coronavirus is going to be deadlier for the short term future.

    Of course medical science will grow in this and we will have a greater understanding, and risks from it will decrease as it’s better understood, but we are not at that stage, so bringing up flu comparisons is pointless. We need to reduce impact until we have a somewhat comparable understanding and means of dealing with it. Saying we manage coronavirus like flu is a likely reality, but we cannot do so just yet, so we shouldn’t be using analogies to flu deaths as to undermine methodolgies of dealing with it until we do.

    “I can tell you with absolute certainty”

    Oh, that’s my trust gained. All we need to rely on is the word of Bucks! Not evidence to go with it.

    You neglect to mention that the NHS has not been overwhelmed with measures to prevent that. If we hadn’t enforced lockdown or anything like that and we had a fully functioning NHS you may have had a point here.

    #177560

    Gurnelista
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    Quite BRI, you’d have to be a pretty sick Conservative to call into question the NHS or the people within it during this time of national crisis, an organisation which has been catastrophically underfunded for the past 10 years, an underfunding and lack of preventive maintenance which has led to the slow, painful deaths of doctors, nurses and many many patients.

    Those who try to criticise in the cheap, dishonest, fatuous way BI does, don’t deserve to live in a decent society. It really isn’t intended for them.

    #177562

    Bucksiron
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    Never mind about the truth, eh, Gurnelista? I made it 100% clear that I’m not calling into question our amazing doctors and nurses, but of course you can’t help yourself from launching a personal attack at me can you.

    As for saying that I don’t deserve to live in a decent society, my God, what a sick mind you must have.

    BRI, no, you’re the one missing the point. I was simply explaining that there are numerous contagious diseases that we’ve lived with for years and I quoted the flu death numbers from 2015 as an example of where a lot of people died very recently as a result of it. You’ve then gone off about coronavirus being more dangerous than flu and made ridiculous comparisons about the number of people who have died from coronavirus over a shorter period of time.

    I say ridiculous because that’s what it is. Saying there’s a greater risk from coronavirus because of what’s happened over the past few weeks in the UK reveals complete ignorance about how these things should be measured and compared.

    As for whether you trust me, I couldn’t care less. I said what I did because I was talking about facts and the evidence is there for everyone to see. If you choose to ignore or can’t understand it, that’s up to you.

    This is just one more example of where the ‘usual suspects’ come out with the same old stuff and pat each other on the back for doing so.

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    #177569

    Iron-awe
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    Your a bit like the Government BI hiding behind the scientists when it suits then kicking them in the goolies when it doesn’t, you even manipulate data in the most underhand PR way to get your phoney points over. As usual the final flourish after paragraphs of drivel is the old ” I couldn’t care less ” line finished off by the classic ” usual suspects “. Could you make it up? Well apparently in your case you can, although to quote your good self it is ” entirely predictable “.

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    #177571

    BloodyRubbishIron
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    You miss the point yet again. I have not said there are worse diseases than coronavirus, that is a straw man argument.

    You were the one who said 28000 died of the flu in a year, thus drawing a comparison, I have not denied that flu kills people. More have died of coronavirus in three months, roughly, than those who died of flu in 2015 throughout a year and that was without mitigation in place. Therefore, as it stands coronavirus currently poses a greater risk than influenza, because it kills more people as it stands based on available information. This could be because of a lack of vaccine, a lack of understanding or whatever, but the point stands that more have died from this than flu in a similar period for recent history.

    You are bringing up flu to say that many die from that as well, but I am pointing out the nuances in that you miss. It’s surely ludicrous to say that flu is as risky based on a lower death toll over a longer time period. It’s not exactly rocket science to say that death estimates from a year with a lower death toll is not exactly as bad as one with a greater total in a few months. I am aware that there may well be differences in methodology, but based on what we can possibly estimate more are dying from covid than flu at present.

    I cannot judge evidence if you don’t bring it up, can I? I have acknowledged the harm of lockdown. Things like mental health, people avoiding hospitals for other issues are real (it’s why hospitals have urged people experiencing heart trouble to still go to hospital). However, if you’re going to make a statement that it is specifically worse than coronavirus I want to see what you’re basing it off. I haven’t got the time to google this, I am procrastinating by doing this, so if you haven’t got the evidence to show I am not going to give trust because you can assure us with ‘absolute certainty.’ Your position of your own opinion’s merit means little to me.

    And the end with the usual conspiracy against poor Bucks as people dare to personally attack him by disagreeing with him.

    #177606

    Bucksiron
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    Absolute nonsense yet again. As for manipulating data I’m doing the very opposite. The data speaks for itself — let’s have a quick look:

    Apparently one in six Londoners have had coronavirus, so given the population of London is around 9 million that’s 1.5 million people in London alone. The number of deaths from coronavirus in London is about 6,000, so it’s very easy to see that the risk to someone in London WHO HAD coronavirus was 0.4%. The risk to anyone in London, however, was much less at 0.1%, If you then take age into account around 50% of of deaths have been over 80, so anyone in London younger than 80 had about 0.05% of dying from coronavirus. Of course, these numbers have now dropped enormously to the extent where the risk is absolutely negligible, especially for anyone under 80.

    Remember, too, that London was around three times as bad as anywhere else.

    Despite this here you all are coming out with the most nonsensical rubbish. I’m sorry to be so blunt but that’s the reality. By all means check my maths — I’ve done the above very quickly so might have made an error.

    #177607

    BloodyRubbishIron
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    One problem there Bucks. None of that addresses anything I said. I have not argued anything you brought up. I have not argued that it doesn’t primarily affect the old or that the risk to the young is far less.

    That doesn’t answer why this coronavirus pandemic should be comparable to flu in death rate, despite the discrepancies in dead over a similar time, or bring up any evidence about lockdown deaths not due to coronavirus, so my previous opinions haven’t changed as this is irrelevant. It doesn’t explain why a disease which killed 28000 in a year is currently as deadly as one that has killed over 35000 in 3 months. Bear in mind that deaths from flu primarily affect the old as well and can spread faster, according to current research.

    Coronavirus has killed more than flu, it’s true that most are old, as it is with flu by the way. However, their lives are not expendable, so we must take them into account when assessing the risk from a disease and it is clear that as it stands coronavirus is a greater risk than flu.

    I am sorry to be blunt, but your argument is nonsense because it is a straw man. It might help if you didn’t just treat anyone you debate with as idiots and think about what is actually being said instead of what you want to be said.

    #177624

    Ferrite
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    Apparently one in six Londoners have had coronavirus, so given the population of London is around 9 million that’s 1.5 million people in London alone. The number of deaths from coronavirus in London is about 6,000, so it’s very easy to see that the risk to someone in London WHO HAD coronavirus was 0.4%. The risk to anyone in London, however, was much less at 0.1%, If you then take age into account around 50% of of deaths have been over 80, so anyone in London younger than 80 had about 0.05% of dying from coronavirus. Of course, these numbers have now dropped enormously to the extent where the risk is absolutely negligible, especially for anyone under 80.

    Well you might work in PR but you definitely don’t have a job where an understanding of statistics is important based on the above.

    #177628

    Iron-awe
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    Breaking news, Buck’s in meltdown during lockdown. Stop the press!!!!!

    #177633

    Northumbiron
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    Of course, these numbers have now dropped enormously to the extent where the risk is absolutely negligible, especially for anyone under 80.

    Bloody brilliant!

    I’m off to Glastonbury. Oh shit! It’s been cancelled.

    Okay I’ll celebrate in the pub. Damn, it’s shut.

    Off to the theatre? No! Cinema? No!

    Wonder if there’s any footie on?

    #177636

    Iron-awe
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    Your so bloody needy NI, can’t you just stay in and crochet a blanket like the rest of us?

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    #177638

    Bucksiron
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    “Well you might work in PR but you definitely don’t have a job where an understanding of statistics is important based on the above”

    Really, Ferrite? I look forward to your explanation of why you say this given that what I’ve done is exactly what any statistician would do to get a broad understanding of the data. What this does is reveal just how unlikely it is for the vast majority of the population to die from coronavirus while at the same time revealing the risk to the elderly, who clearly need to treated differently.

    It would be very easy to go one step further and say that anyone who is overweight or has diabetes, which of course are linked in many cases, should lose weight and reduce their diabetes risk. Likewise those with asthma and other respiratory diseases. However, this advice was around long before coronavirus but many people just chose to ignore it.

    What a pity the scientific advice — based on computer models, of course — was that the NHS would be overrun, leading to the very people most at risk being sent from the very place where they should have stayed. Tens of thousands more have died directly as a result of this while the NHS was able to cope perfectly well, albeit under the inevitable strain that any health service would be under given the circumstances.

    BRI, I really have no idea what you’re going on about other than to say you’re going round in circles. As to whether flu is more dangerous than coronavirus or vice versa depends on numerous factors, which vary from person to person and circumstance to circumstance. My point was very simply that there are numerous contagious diseases, which killed a lot of people and were around before coronavirus.

    #177639

    BloodyRubbishIron
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    Saying that coronavirus has killed more people in three months than your flu example did in a year, and is therefore worse for society, really shouldn’t be that hard to understand. Yes, most who die are old, but that doesn’t mean we should be negligent.

    My whole point stems from you bringing up flu as a means of saying people die from something and we live with it. My point is that coronavirus has killed more than your stated flu example, in a bad year, in less time and with more precautions. It is therefore worse in that more people die. Therefore, given the novel nature of it, comparative lack of knowledge and potential for it to overwhelm services we need to treat it differently at the moment to the yearly flu.

    You, of course, then declared it nonsense that a disease which killed less people over a longer time period is as worrisome for deaths than one which killed more in such a time and started bringing up irrelevant analysis to the point which I was making.

    #177650

    Bucksiron
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    Please get your facts straight, BRI:

    1. I haven’t said nor implied that we can be negligent. I’ve merely pointed out that people are grossly exaggerating the risk for the vast majority of the population. I’ve also made it clear that the elderly and vulnerable are at risk while pointing out this is exactly the same with other diseases.

    2. Re flu, you’re just going round in circles. In response to Pat’s comment that “everyday risks” don’t involve contagious diseases I simply used flu as an example that everyday risks actually involve a lot of contagious diseases, which we’ve learnt to live with, including flu. I then pointed out that as recently as 2015 flu killed 28,000 in the UK alone for no other reason than to emphasise the point. You then claimed that coronavirus is more dangerous than flu and I pointed out that any comparison depends on lots of different factors and the way you made your comparison is nonsense. Clearly you disagree, which is fine. I still say it’s nonsense.

    I’m still waiting for Ferrite to tell me why I can’t possibly run a business that depends on an understanding of statistics, which I’m looking forward to immensely.

    #177651

    BloodyRubbishIron
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    Fair, but I think it’s best to be careful to be stringent against downplaying coronavirus, because there are many who want to live completely as normal, as can be seen with some whining about social distancing even.

    I’m still struggling to see how a disease which killed 28000 a year can be said to be at least as deadly as one which has killed 35000 in 3 months. The fact is that this coronavirus is currently estimated to have a higher death toll than flu, as it stands, so is therefore a greater risk to the population (or more specifically the ‘at risk’ population).

    Of course there are differences in how the diseases affect the population. Someone young and healthy is not at great risk from coronavirus, but they aren’t from flu either. We also have a vaccine for flu, but not coronavirus, so there is a greater need to be careful with this than flu (not me saying we should be negligent with flu; people at greater risk should get their flu jabs). However, it still remains that this coronavirus pandemic has killed more people and will kill more people throughout the year than flu typically does. It is therefore a greater risk to many than flu typically is. To demonstrate why flu is as deadly, or more deadly, than coronavirus to society you just need to explain why a virus which killed 28000 in a bad year is as greater risk to the death toll than one which has killed 35000 in 3 months. I don’t think this will happen, because the very nature of the question is nonsensical, which isn’t surprising as your arguments against this are nonsense or irrelevance.

    I may have been too pedantic to call you up on this given the nature of the reply, but I am not going to pretend that actually a disease with a lower known death rate kills as much as one which has killed more.

    #177667

    Northumbiron
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    You may well know people whose cancer treatment’s continued, NI, but I know people whose serious cancer treatment’s been put on hold while screening’s also been stopped.

    Possibly Bucks’s, because in many ways it’s a postcode lottery.

    Having said that we spoke today with our friend who is head of nursing at Newcastle’s RVI which was one the original five hospitals that took in some of the first cases.

    She said that they now had no COVID cases and it was eerily quiet. Patients waiting for treatment such as operations or scans had been told they could now be seen but only half have said they’ll attend, the others have refused on the grounds that they don’t want to risk being in a hospital.

    #177670

    Gurnelista
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    That’s right, NI, over 300 health and social care staff dead, and BI dares to claim the NHS is coping perfectly well!

    You really are either ignorant of the facts or wilfully thick, BI.

    Here’s why Covid19 is worse than flu.

    https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

    And never mind furloughs for failure, hobbyists should be outside picking fruit and veg.

    #177675

    mistertonmick
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    God knows what I had in December and Half of January, reading that it wasn’t the Flu, but about 50% of the coronavirus with the bad cough and sore throat for 7 weeks and chest infection amongst some listed, but it wasn’t fun I can tell you and you didn’t think it would ever go away and doctors didn’t know how to treat it because it wasn’t normal, you couldn’t even clear the Phlegm from your throat, but they say the COVID-19 wasn’t here until January but a lot of people don’t believe it and in France and Germany they say it was in their countries in December after blood tests, so a lot of British people will be waiting for Antibody tests to see if it was what was going around in December and I do know a Iron fan who was in hospital for nearly a month.

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    #177681

    Deereyme66
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    Erm, interesting Mick. I had a slightly older friend who had similar and was hospitalised in early Jan. They never did find out what it was. He’s had tests for more sinister activity and all clear. Could have been a flu virus turned in to an infection maybe?

    In response to this from Bucks though:

    ‘As for young kids passing the virus on to others, of course there’s a risk of that happening but, first, that isn’t the reason why so many kids are terrified even if some are’

    And you KNOW this how?

    #177682

    Deereyme66
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    If you prefaced your statements with the more accurate ‘I think’ rather than what appears to be ‘I know’ Bucks, we could avoid all this rancour and ill feeling. Again and again and again.

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